JSE Week Opens on Load-Shedding Dread, Earnings Hope

Overnight global mood

Wall Street and London closed Friday on steady footing; Asia is tracking sideways through Monday morning with no major surprises. The rand is doing its usual thing. Today the JSE opens without significant overnight drama, which is either good news or a trap waiting to be sprung.

Today's big stories

• Load-shedding returns in three to four years, says Eskom's own logic. If the power utility follows its coal decommissioning schedule, South Africa walks straight into an electricity crisis worse than the one we've been living with. Investors in Eskom (ESK) and the industrial consumers propped up by expensive diesel should find this cheerful. Read more.
• Earnings season kicks off with miners and AB InBev in focus. The week brings results from AB InBev (ABL), Old Mutual (OMU), and three mining stocks, with gold prices elevated and cash generation expected to be robust. This is the week retail investors discover whether their mining holdings are undervalued or just old-fashioned sad. Read more.

Sector watch

Mining and industrials take centre stage as earnings roll in and the gold price backdrop remains friendly. Keep an eye on energy stocks; Eskom's three-year electricity warning is the kind of existential threat that either gets priced in or gets ignored until it suddenly matters. Financials will watch OMU closely for clues about insurer health in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

One thing to watch

Watch Eskom (ESK) today. The company is now publicly admitting it might deliver load-shedding stage two again. That's not a prediction; that's a warning wrapped in regulatory language. The market will either yawn or panic.