One year, no load-shedding (and other fairy tales)

Overnight global mood

Wall Street closed Friday in a holding pattern as bond yields stayed sticky and inflation chatter continued to haunt equities. Asia has been quiet; London is warming into the week. Crude oil prices remain buoyant on geopolitical jitters, which is music to the ears of SA's carry-trade gamblers and emerging-market currency speculators.

Today's big stories

• Eskom's load-shedding milestone is real. Probably. The utility hit one year without rolling blackouts on Saturday, which is genuinely impressive and something you could not have predicted in 2022. The catch, as is always the way, is that the situation is far more complicated than the headline suggests; grid resilience and winter peaking are still lurking. Read more.
• The rand is having one of its good days. Emerging-market carry trades are back in favour after taking a battering, and crude oil's recent rally is bolstering expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer; higher rates make the rand more attractive to foreign yield hunters. This could be a nice tail wind for exporters and commodity stocks today. Read more.

Sector watch

Energy and resources will be the stars if the rand holds its strength and oil stays elevated; Eskom's milestone may also give utility and infrastructure plays a modest mood boost. Watch out for any hawkish comments on interest rates from the SARB, which would cool everything down. Industrials and consumer stocks are in a holding pattern until we see clearer direction on the macro.

One thing to watch

Eskom itself. One year without load-shedding is a genuine achievement, but winter is coming and maintenance schedules are relentless. Any hint of trouble on the horizon will spook the market faster than you can say SASSA payment delay. Keep one eye on the power utility today and the weeks ahead.