Absa looks cheap; Transnet coal climbing

Overnight global mood

Wall Street closed modestly positive yesterday, with tech holding up despite the usual interest-rate theatre. London and Asia have been quiet; no crisis, which in 2026 counts as a win. The rand will do whatever it wants, as always, but the global mood is neutral-to-helpful for emerging market risk assets like the JSE.

Today's big stories

• Absa delivers and still looks cheap. The bank beat expectations, and analysis suggests there are lessons here about how economies actually recover. Spain's turnaround is being studied; SA has mostly studied how to not do that. Read more.
• The secret deal that saved Vodacom and MTN. Turns out in the early 1990s, Johann Rupert and Cyril Ramaphosa negotiated a trade union stake arrangement that helped preserve telecom independence. Historical context is always useful when you're trying to understand why these stocks have any credibility at all. Read more.
• Transnet rail recovery showing real teeth. Coal exports through Richards Bay are climbing on a four-year uptrend. Still below the 2017 peak, but infrastructure that actually works is rare enough here to warrant attention. Read more.

Sector watch

Banking and financials should get a bounce if Absa's earnings narrative spreads; keep an eye on peers like FirstRand and Standard Bank for any follow-through. Telecoms are relevant for the historical context but watch earnings quality, not nostalgia. Materials and energy stocks (especially those with Transnet exposure) could see interest if coal volumes continue their upward path. Load shedding permitting, industrials that depend on reliable export logistics might wake up.

One thing to watch

Absa. If it truly trades at a discount despite solid delivery, that's either a buying signal or a warning sign that the market knows something earnings reports don't. The fact that SA hasn't nicked Spain's playbook yet is reason enough to wonder if financial recovery stocks deserve a closer look. Check the community chatter on Absa.