Mining: We Ignored Harry's Memo

Overnight global mood

Wall Street closed Friday with its usual Friday fatigue, and London is likely to drift through Monday's opening with the bank holiday flavour most of Europe wears into the week. Asia will shake things up first, but the real story here is commodity prices and the rand. If metals soften overnight, the JSE's mining stocks will feel the draught before lunch.

Today's big stories

• Mining investment collapsing while Zambia figures it out. A painful reminder that South Africa repeated Zambia's nationalisation mistake, except Zambia learned and privatised. Meanwhile, our mining investment continues its downward spiral. It's the kind of policy own-goal that Harry Oppenheimer probably saw coming 20 years ago. Read more.
• Start of the week means load shedding watch resumes. Eskom's Monday mood will set the tone for industrial demand and energy-dependent stocks. Check the stage before you load up on anything cyclical.

Sector watch

Mining will carry the weight today. The commentary on declining investment suggests resource stocks are priced for stagnation, not revival. Watch platinum and gold closely; they're the JSE's canary down the policy mineshaft. Industrials and retail will watch load shedding like hawks. Banking is the steadier play if the mood turns defensive.

One thing to watch

The broader JSE Top 40 opening bell. Today's mining narrative could set the tone for the whole week. If the market prices in further decline in investment appetite, you'll see it in the commodity stocks first.