Retail face-off; MTN's US headache; Eskom's decade of pain

Overnight global mood

US equity futures are treading water ahead of the Fed's favoured inflation gauge due Thursday; think cautious, not convulsive. London and European markets will open flat to slightly softer as summer relief fades and the autumn earnings grind begins. Asia rolled over overnight, spooked by Chinese stimulus fatigue and bond yields drifting higher. The JSE opens into a world that's waiting, not panicking.

Today's big stories

• Retail's leadership reshuffle. Pick n Pay, Spar, and Woolworths are all hunting fresh leadership blood to take on Shoprite's tightening grip. This is what happens when growth stalls; you either innovate or you shuffle the deck. Watch for which retailer actually moves the needle versus which just moves the chairs. Read more.
• MTN's US legal fever hits discovery phase. The anti-terrorism case against MTN in the United States is now in the expensive, document-heavy discovery phase. This is the part where both sides finally get to see what the other side has; expensive, drawn-out, and a distraction MTN's management could do without. Read more.
• A decade of Eskom pain is priced in. Electricity tariffs are not falling for the next ten years; Eskom's turnaround and government interventions will take time that consumers and corporates don't have. This is the JSE's baseline now. Any energy stock that's banking on relief is banking on a fairy tale. Read more.

Sector watch

Retail will be the focal point today; leadership changes are news, but they're also a confession that the old guard wasn't fast enough. Telecom will be watching MTN's legal cloud with the usual mixture of schadenfreude and anxiety (Vodacom has its own regulatory worries). Energy and industrials will grind on under the weight of that decade-long tariff headwind. Consumer staples may catch some rotation if investors start hedging against another inflation spike.

One thing to watch

Pick n Pay and Woolworths open today under management scrutiny and market expectations that they'll accelerate. The market will be pricing in either innovation or disappointment; there's rarely a middle ground. Keep an eye on Woolworths (WHL) for any early signal of which way the retail wind is blowing.