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Finbond's exposure to SA consumer credit is rough when rates are this high and load-shedding is crushing discretionary spend. But the micro-lending space is where people actually go when they need cash, so defaults might not spike as bad as you'd think compared to traditional unsecured lenders. Long-term view hasn't changed, they'll survive this cycle even if the next two earnings are messy.
Interesting numbers on the last set, credit impairment ratio came in around 8.5% which is manageable for the micro-lending space but worth watching if economic stress picks up. At R1.02 you're getting a decent entry if you believe the rand weakness helps repayments and load-shedding doesn't hammer the consumer further. Could be wrong but the thesis holds if they stick to their core book and don't get too aggressive chasing growth through dodgy lending.
FGL getting smashed but the micro lending space is still hungry for this stuff, especially with credit hungry folks out there. Balance sheet isnt pretty but if they sort out their impairments they could rip. R1.02 is giving value imo, LFG.
FGL sitting at R1.02 and honestly the micro-lending space is brutal right now with rates where they are. Company's been squeezed hard but if they can hold their book together through this cycle they're got real upside when credit normalizes. Comparing to the other lenders, FGL's portfolio quality matters way more than the noise, just need to see it in the numbers.
FGL lending into the township market when everyone else got scared, that's the thesis. Micro-lending aint sexy but its real money if you dont blow up on defaults, and these guys have been around long enough to know the game. At R0.99 you're basically pricing in armageddon, catch the express train when the rand steadies and credit demand picks up again.
FGL sitting at R0.99 is comedy, given what micro-lending outfits like Capitec have done over a decade. Balance sheet's still sore from the covid years but the credit book's tightening up, which matters more than sentiment. If they can hold arrears steady while volumes grow back, there's actual meat on the bone here.
FGL sitting at R0.99 is honestly looking decent given what theyre doing in the micro lending space. lot of these guys are getting squeezed by rate hikes but finbond's been fairly resilient on the credit side, ngl their book management looks tighter than some peers. long term if they keep the defaults under control and the rand stays reasonable, theres something here.
Key clarification on the credit loss ratio, FGL pushed it down to 28% in the last quarter which is actually solid for micro-lending where you're dealing with subprime. Compare that to where they were two years back and the underwriting's genuinely tightened. At R0.99 you're paying bugger all for a lender that's actually de-risking the book instead of just pushing volume like everyone else was doing.
Good Morning Everyone. FGL sitting at R1.09 after that rough patch, micro lending space still under pressure but their loan book recovery rates are holding up better than peers. Lot of potential if load shedding doesn't crater consumer repayments further, worth watching the next SENS update on book quality.
FGL holding R1.09 but micro lending getting squeezed hey. Interest rate environment killing affordability for their target market, where's the growth coming from next year. Compare to Bayport, at least they got diversified revenue streams.
FGL at R1.09 is basically giving away micro-lending exposure in SA. The whole sector got hammered but these guys still got book value backing them, problem is debt levels are sketchy and collections have been rough. If they sort the arrears out next half could be interesting but right now it's a turnaround play not a buy and hold.
fgl getting hammered on the micro-lending sector concerns but balance sheet still solid compared to peerdrive and bayport. if they can keep arrears under control through this load-shedding cycle the dividend might actually hold. been watching the institutional selling, someone knows something or just profit taking.
Interesting numbers on the latest results, net advances up but cost of funding still eating into margins. Fwiw the micro-lending space is brutal in a high rate environment, hard to see FGL's ROE improve unless they can really tighten their cost base or the Reserve Bank starts cutting. Worth noting they're still profitable which is more than some peers can say, but at R1.09 you're banking on either better credit conditions or a meaningful operational turnaround. Could be wrong but the yield isn't there yet to compensate for the execution risk.
Been looking at FGL's latest numbers, micro-lending book is under pressure but the delinquency ratios aren't as bad as some peers are dealing with. At R1.09 the yield on earnings is decent if they can stabilize collections, but honestly the rand weakness and rate cycle matters more than the fundamentals right now. Still holding, waiting to see if H2 shows any recovery in new originations.
FGL lending the small guy a fighting chance, Springboks vibes today
FGL taking a proper hiding today at R1.00, down 11.5%, but the financials sector has been under pressure and this might just be panic selling rather than fundamental deterioration. Long-term play depends on whether management can show revenue growth and maintain dividend payouts
FGL at R114 looks overcooked given the margin compression we're seeing across the broader lending space. The +0.88% pop today doesn't reflect the structural headwinds in unsecured lending where competition is absolutely brutal and default rates remain sticky despite the interest
Everyone's chasing FGL at R114 after today's mild pop, but the financials sector is pricing in rate cuts that haven't materialized yet. At these levels with dividend yield compressed, the risk-reward doesn't justify leverage exposure unless you're shorting into strength.
FGL's 7.62% pop to R113.00 catches my eye, but I need to see the underlying catalyst before getting excited. The financials sector has been choppy, and until I verify the dividend cover ratio and free cash flow generation driving this move, I'm reserving judgment on whether this