Hulamin (JSE: HLM) share price, discussion & sentiment

Grabbed some HLM at R2.18 after that 15% pop on the interim results, reckon the aluminum demand story might be firing up again if they're showing decent cash generation in this half.

Hulamin's been treading water at R1.90 and the aluminium cycle isn't doing it any favours. At those levels the dividend yield is practically negligible, which makes it a hard sell unless you reckon the rand weakness or higher LME prices kick in to boost margins.

Added to HLM at R1.69 this morning, liking the momentum off lows and the aluminium exposure with rand weakness tailwind, though the balance sheet still needs watching.

rand is weak, energy costs are killing them. beverage can demand dropped hard last year, automotive not picking up. at r1.58 they're priced for a turnaround that might not come.

aluminium demand is cratering with all the rate hikes killing auto and packaging, but hulamin's got decent hedging on their input costs and they're still cash positive. long-term view hasn't changed, the weak rand actually helps on export pricing when things stabilize. keeping it.

HLM getting squeezed hard by rand weakness and power cuts killing throughput. Beverage can side doing ok but automotive is flat, margins got massacred last half. At R1.58 you're basically pricing in them staying broken, reckon there's a real turn if they get costs under control and loadshedding eases up a bit.

Hulamin's been hammered on the rand strength and weak global aluminium prices, but the fundamentals haven't actually broken. Compare this to Impala Platinum getting smashed on metal prices, investors who held through those cycles came out ahead. HLM's balance sheet is solid enough to ride out the cycle, long-term view hasn't changed for me.

alum rolling is a commodity game and HLM got squeezed between chinese dumping and rand weakness, probably why we're sitting at R1.62. the beverage can side keeps them afloat but automotive is brutal right now. big dogs don't cook they eat and right now they're getting nibbled to death.

been holding hlm for years, the rand weakness usually helps rolled aluminium exporters but the local demand side is what worries me with load-shedding killing manufacturing. beverage can division should be more resilient than automotive though, less cyclical. long-term view hasn't changed, balance sheet is solid enough to weather this.

HLM's margins got squeezed proper when energy costs spiked, but the underlying demand for rolled aluminium isn't going anywhere, beverage cans especially. Compare that to Constellium in Europe, they're still printing money despite the same headwinds. If load-shedding settles and rand finds some stability, positioned perfectly to recover on lower input costs.

could read as the whole china slowdown hitting demand for beverage can stock pretty hard, rand weakness only helps so much when your input costs are also climbing. haven't seen the latest capex guidance but if they're not reinvesting in efficiency gains this could get messy relative to peers like novelis. R1.62 looks cheap on paper but need to see if the margin compression is temporary or structural.

HLM getting crushed, rand weakness killing margins bad.

hulamin's basically a commodity play dressed up as manufacturing. at R1.74 you're betting on rand weakness and can demand staying soft, ngl that's a thin margin for error when energy costs are what they are here. wouldn't touch it unless alum prices get a proper kick.

ngl the aluminium demand story is broken right now, china's dumping cheap stuff everywhere and our rand weakness isn't helping margins like it used to. been nibbling at r1.74 but honestly the beverage can cycle looks messy for the next while, eish. not selling the dip yet though, just waiting to see if they can stabilize capex and show some cost discipline when results come.

HLM's been beaten down but the roll-out of beverage can demand in Africa should pick up through 2024, that's where the margin sits. At R1.74 the risk reward is very compelling, especially if energy costs ease off a bit. Patience looks like a real good idea here, catalysts moving forward.

HLM down 0.57% to R1.74 today while Conares and other industrials are holding steadier. The aluminium play looks weaker than peers on similar macro headwinds, though the dividend yield is still attractive if they can maintain output.

HLM's recovery to R1.74 suggests the market is pricing in some optimism around aluminium demand and margin recovery, though the real test will be whether management can sustain operational leverage through an economic cycle that still looks uncertain. The dividend yield at curren

HLM closing at R1.74 is pretty rough considering the rand weakness should be helping the export side. Margins getting squeezed on input costs and beverage can volumes aren't where they need to be. Long term if they can stabilize operations and aluminum prices recover, there's real value here but short term could stay messy.

hlm printing money with those beverage can contracts coming through. aluminum demand picking up globally and we're sitting at r1.74, absolute bargain compared to peers. cash position solid, divvy coming. this thing runs to r150 easy when the market wakes up.

HLM getting absolutely hammered on rand weakness and aluminium spot prices in the dirt. Rolling margins are cooked when your input costs don't move but output prices do, that's just physics. Stock's cheap on book value but you're betting on either rand recovery or a commodity bounce, neither is guaranteed. Big dogs don't cook they eat, this one's been starving.