Investors are optimistic about Impala Platinum's positioning at the start of a platinum group metals recovery cycle, with several noting the company's massive PGM resources and operational leverage potential similar to Sibanye's gains, though one investor expressed skepticism about recent flat performance and weakness in palladium prices offsetting the opportunity.
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Closed at 179.58 which is still chunky money for a mining stock getting hammered by rand weakness and load-shedding. Problem is palladium's in the toilet and automotive demand never really came back properly. Would need a proper spike in rhodium or a weaker currency to make this interesting again, and neither looks imminent.
Platinum prices have been under pressure, and IMP's all-in sustaining costs sit around 1000 USD per ounce. At current spot that's not much margin for error, especially with rand weakness eating into it. The dividend looked decent when PGMs were stronger but let's be honest here, the story only works if you believe prices recover meaningfully from here.
Springboks down 20 at halftime, still back it. Same energy needed here.
Not sure about this one. Platinum prices have been weak, and IMP's all-in sustaining costs are still pretty high relative to where palladium is trading. Do you think the rand weakness helps them enough to offset lower volumes, or are they just treading water until metal prices recover?
IMP at 179.58 is still battling the structural headwinds in platinum: weak autocatalyst demand, Chinese EV cannibalization, and cost inflation eating into margins. The dividend yield looks decent on paper but it's only worth something if the company can navigate through the next
Good Morning Everyone. IMP's rhodium and palladium mix is actually holding up better than pure platinum plays when you look at end-demand, and at 179.58 the yield's reasonable if the rand stays weak enough to support rand-denominated export revenue. Per-share cash hasn't fallen off a cliff like the share price suggests, so either the market's pricing in a serious metals downturn or there's room here for patience.
@jse_tttrading ja, the rand thing makes sense actually
@easy_money_sa what's stopping them from cutting the dividend if metals stay under pressure though
Platinum's been beaten down but IMP's got real assets in the ground and palladium's still needed for catalytic converters regardless of EV noise. At 179.58 you're looking at decent value against the replacement cost of those mines. Big producers like Sibanye are way higher on the JSE, reckon there's legs here if metals recover even a bit.
Platinum's stuck in this weird spot where auto demand is soft but jewellery and industrial use are holding up OK. IMP's all-in costs have come down nicely but the rand weakness is a double-edged thing, helps export revenue but the supply chain still costs more. Long-term view hasn't changed for me, the metals story works if you're patient through the cycle.
Strike action risk keeps hanging over the stock, but the dividend yield at these levels is actually worth a closer look for income players. Palladium exposure is the real kicker though, given automotive demand hasn't collapsed the way some feared. IMP's per-share cash generation hasn't deteriorated as much as the share price would suggest.
what's AISC, is that like the cost to pull the stuff out the ground?
sorry if this is obvious, but what's AISC and why does it matter so much for IMP
Platinum's been weak all year, rand's under pressure, and IMP's carrying a lot of debt from the acquisition spree. That said, the long-term view hasn't changed, palladium recovery could surprise us and the company's actually cash generative when metal prices cooperate. Markets are shaky but I'll keep holding as long as it takes.
interesting numbers on the aisc creep pete mentioned, last quarterly had it around 920 usd/oz and that's getting gnarly when spot's flirting with 950. rand at these levels is basically a hidden cost hike for anyone holding rands. long term the thesis is fine, palladium and rhodium do eventually recover, but fwiw the next two quarters are going to show whether they can hold the line on costs or if we're watching margins just compress into nothing. at 179.58 you're not getting paid much for the wait imo.
IMP closed at 179.58 yesterday but the rand weakness isn't helping when you're trying to export PGMs. Margins get squeezed either way, commodity down or currency down. Long term the stuff's needed for catalytic converters and hydrogen fuel cells but right now we're just watching it bleed. Reckon holding unless it breaks below 175.
@pedant_pete what was aisc in rand terms last quarter though, compared to the quarter before?
Current R 180,93 — 50% of range
Fundamentals sourced from JSE disclosures. Updated quarterly.