Mpact (JSE: MPT) share price, discussion & sentiment

MPT BOUNCING BACK FROM LOWS, PACKAGING ALWAYS NEEDED NO MATTER WHAT!!! GUYS FORGET THE NOISE, THIS THING PRINTS CASH WHEN FMCG RUNS. R20 IS NOTHING, WE'RE HEADING TO R35 EASY IN 2-3 YEARS. BEST IS YET TO COME!!!

rand weak, packaging demand weaker. R19.60 is just noise tbh

Good Morning Everyone, MPT closing at R19.60 means were sitting just below that R20 resistance. Corrugated volumes have been under pressure since load-shedding killed retail footfall, but the solid board and plastic film divisions are holding better margins. Long term the packaging demand in SA won't disappear, just cyclical right now.

Look, everyone crying about the rand weakness and load-shedding hitting volumes but Mpact's got real assets, real cash flow, and they're not burning money like some JSE darlings. Yeah the packaging cycle is cyclical but at R19.60 you're getting a business that actually prints money, not a promise. Bears always miss the rebound.

after reading the second document, key thing is the margin compression in corrugated is real but plastics division is actually carrying water now. if they can keep that momentum and knock out some of the older capex debt they're not the value trap everyone thinks. R21.48 is still pricing in way too much doom for a business doing this volume in packaging.

mpact's been quietly fixing the balance sheet. plastic films segment actually turning positive cash flow again after load-shedding murdered those margins two years back. at r21.48 youre not paying much for a company thats back to generating cash, especially if input costs stay soft.

interesting numbers on the half year, ebitda margin actually held up better than i expected given the rand weakness and input cost pressure. if they can keep that discipline through the second half and the corrugated volumes don't crater we're looking at a pretty solid full year result. fwiw the plastic films division is the real wild card, that's where you see the upside if consumer demand stabilizes. at R21.48 reckon there's value here if you're patient.

mpt's been getting smashed but the packaging play is solid, especially if you're holding long. corrugated demand picks up when retail moves, and they've got decent margins vs peers. r21.48 close is honestly not bad entry territory if you believe in the cycle turning.

Mpact's been grinding through the packaging space for years now and the corrugated side actually moves with volume when things aren't completely broken. R21.48 looks reasonable if they can keep costs down on raw materials, which is the whole ballgame in this sector. Plastics division is the wild card, reckon that's where the upside is if they nail the film stuff.

MPT's been grinding lower but the packaging demand cycle still intact, FMCG's not going anywhere. Last set of numbers showed margin pressure from input costs but that's cyclical, not structural. Risk reward is very compelling at these levels if you believe the rand stabilizes even slightly. Patience looks like a real good idea here, catalysts moving forward around volume recovery.

Worth reading up on their latest packaging volumes, interesting shift in mix

mpact's been getting hammered on rand weakness and input costs but the corrugated side still shifts volume even when things are grim. R21.48 is probably fair value if you reckon the recycled content push keeps margins from collapsing. packaging never goes out of style, just depends if management can stop the bleeding on plastics.

MPT down 3.28% today to R20.92, getting hammered alongside the broader packaging play while Astrapak holding firmer. Reckon the market's pricing in margin pressure from weak demand, but at these levels the dividend yield (around 8%) starts looking attractive versus peers getting

@julianreins_jse spot on with the corrugated story, margins are holding up there. plastic films capex is the real catalyst though

@julianreins_jse agreed, margin hold is the key though

Mpact's been bouncing around but the packaging story is solid if you think about it. Everyone still needs boxes and film no matter what, FMCG keeps ordering. R21.63 feels reasonable if they can keep margins steady through the rand swings. Long hold for me, not sexy but it works.

Corrugated margins holding up is the key thing tbh, that's where the real money is. Plastic films dragging but if that capex lands and fmcg actually needs stock again we could see a proper pop. Ngl the rand's been painful for everyone but mpact's hedged better than most of the packaging crew so at r21.63 there's value if they don't stuff the execution.

mpt closing at r21.63 is solid given how hard packaging plays got beaten down. corrugated demand from retail and fmcg is still there even if volumes are tight, and they're actually making cash which beats half the stuff on the board. if inflation settles the input costs come down hard and margins print, gonna be shocked if this doesn't run to mid 20s over next year or so.

@julianreins_jse corrugated margins are lekker right now hey

interesting numbers from h1, ebitda margins actually held up better than i expected given the rand weakness hitting imports. plastic films segment still taking strain but corrugated is doing the heavy lifting, worth noting their working capital tied up in raw materials is getting squeezed. imo if they can keep pricing power in corrugated through the next cycle and get some rand stability, R21.63 isnt the worst entry point for a 2-3 year hold