Merafe Resources (JSE: MRF) share price, discussion & sentiment

Picked up more MRF at 1.33 because the ferrochrome cycle is turning and the dividend yield at these prices compensates for the cyclical risk.

Added MRF to my portfolio

MRF at R1.23 is still nursing losses from the chrome downcycle, and with the company's ferrochrome exposure tied to volatile commodity prices, recovery depends on whether steel demand rebounds materially in the next 12 to 18 months. The dividend yield is negligible at these level

MRF down 1.57% on the day, sitting at R1.25. Ferrochrome exposure means it's hostage to commodity prices and Chinese demand, so fundamentals matter less than the cycle right now.

interesting numbers on the chrome spread lately, fmo the operational leverage kicks in harder once you're above usd 200/t. merafe's balance sheet has room to breathe now which wasn't true 18 months back, worth noting that most of the peers are still sweating it out at these rand levels.

merafe's sitting at r1.32 and ferrochrome prices have been hammered but they've got a decent cost base compared to other producers. long term the stainless steel demand story hasn't changed, just gotta ride out the commodity cycle. don't even check the sp, come back in 6 months.

Do you think the ferrochrome price recovery actually sticks though, or we just riding a temporary bump. MRF at R1.32 still looks cheap on book value but where's the earnings visibility if china demand drops again.

R2.50 EASY BY YEAR END!!

MRF sitting at R1.26 after that modest dip, but the ferrochrome exposure to steel demand remains the real question here. At these levels you're betting on a commodity recovery, not on balance sheet strength, so sentiment stays conditional on China's construction activity.

MRF dropping to R1.26 on a quiet day, but I'm holding because these ferrochrome plays tend to move on commodity cycles rather than daily noise, and we're not at the levels where the dividend yield becomes interesting yet.

MRF down 4.48% today after that ferrochrome price dip. Anyone holding through this or trimming positions given the cyclical headwinds we're seeing across the complex?

Man chrome prices have been absolute dog for ages, and merafe's margins are getting squeezed hard. R1.28 is looking thin when you think about the capex they need just to keep pace with Isos and Glencore's ferrochrome ops. Long term the stainless demand story is still there but shorts are having a field day on the rand weakness and load shedding drama. Frustrating as hell though cos the assets are solid, just timing that's killing it.

MRF sitting at R1.28 is rough ngl, ferrochrome demand tied to stainless steel cycle and thats been weak globally. Balance sheet stress from when chrome prices tanked, recovery gonna be slow. Reckon you need a proper commodity bounce and better rand to see real upside here, not just a dead cat bounce.

ferrochrome spot prices have been weak for months, rand strength not helping either. at R1.28 where's the margin story here, production costs still climbing. unless stainless demand picks up hard in q1 this looks like dead money.

mrf sitting at r1.28 and ferrochrome spot prices still under pressure. need to see demand pick up from the stainless steel side, otherwise margins stay squeezed. once we get a proper offtake agreement locked in with a big player, then you'll see this move. otherwise just bouncing around here.

Ferrochrome is cyclical as hell but Merafe's sitting on decent assets when you look at what Glencore and Implats are doing with their chrome exposure. The rand weakness actually helps here, exports get cheaper. At R1.33 you're not paying for anything, which is the whole point when the cycle turns.

Ferrochrome spot price has been dead for months and MRF's cash position keeps getting tighter, which is the real problem not the share price. Even if chrome recovers next year the balance sheet damage is already done. Hard to see upside until we see actual production cost cuts or a serious buyer for the operation.

SPENT THE WEEKEND ON MRF NUMBERS, FERROCHROME COMING BACK!!

Ferro prices have been under pressure but MRF's cost base is solid compared to peers, gives them runway if we see any bounce. Problem is the rand weakness cuts both ways, export margins look ok but rand strength would help capex. Patience looks like a real good idea here, catalysts moving forward when we see demand tick up from stainless mills again.

MRF down 2.26% today but the ferrochrome cycle seems to be stabilizing. Anyone else thinking the dividend yield at these levels starts looking interesting, or are we waiting for clearer demand signals from China first?