Momentum Group (JSE: MTM) share price, discussion & sentiment

Pulled the latest results, persistency issue is real but yield covers the wait

@nico_the_analyst yeah the persistency drag is overblown imo

@swordfish_sa agreed, the yield alone justifies a nibble here

r150 minimum, book it

Reading the latest results, balance sheet holding up well. Patience looks like a real good idea here.

claims ratio looking solid compared to sanlam and discovery, dividend yield sitting pretty at what, 7.8 percent. ngl if mtm sorts out the persistency issue on the retail side this thing's got legs, but we've heard that one before hey.

interesting numbers on the embedded value side, fwiw the EV growth has been solid even with rand weakness headwinds. at R40.82 you're getting decent yield on the insurance book and the wealth management arm is actually doing proper work. my reading of this is most people sleep on MTM because it doesn't have the sexiness of a tech play but the cash generation is real, could be wrong but the fund flows into the protection products look structural not cyclical

dividend yield is the only thing keeping me awake on this one tbh, claims management is alright but you're basically waiting for sentiment to flip on the whole insurance bucket. consolidation at R40.82 isnt the worst spot to nibble if youre thinking 3 year hold, just dont expect fireworks anytime soon.

Reading through the latest SENS on embedded value, the margin improvement in the savings business is actually what's holding this together. Peaked at R40.82 today but the real story is whether they can keep growing AUM without the rand falling apart again. Life insurance plays usually get hammered in a recession so you're basically betting Momentum keeps clients locked in. Fair value if earnings stay steady but not much upside if the economy actually tanks.

Aai jinne come on MTM run baby run

Come on MTM, run it up!

been watching mtm consolidate around this level for a while now, the dividend yield is still solid compared to other financials and they've been managing the claims pretty well. good day to top up if you believe in the long-term savings story, insurance plays always recover once sentiment shifts.

@cape_steel yeah that's the thing hey, where's it coming from

@cape_steel yeah man, where's the real growth though. insurance book's mature, rand's killing yields. tough spot.

ADMIN COSTS COMING DOWN AND NAV HOLDING STRONG, PEOPLE SLEEPING ON THIS!! OLD MUTUAL AND SANLAM BOTH RAN HARD WHEN THEIR EXPENSE RATIOS TIGHTENED, MTM'S DOING THE SAME THING RIGHT NOW. DIVIDEND YIELD GONNA ATTRACT BUYERS AGAIN ONCE RATE CYCLE STABILISES, EASY R60+ IN TWO YEARS!!

expense ratio tightening is real but admin headcount hasn't budged much, that's the thing

@cape_steel yeah that's the real question isn't it, where's the lift coming from if rates stay here

Pulled the latest SENS filing, expense ratios tightening up a bit

rate environment killed the tailwind, now they need actual earnings growth not just margin squeezes. expense ratio tightening is positive but yield's not enough to move the stock, needs something more. let's get a contract, once the deals start, then it will run, simple as that.

Been through the latest numbers. Admin costs definitely moving the needle, worth watching next quarter.