Nictus (JSE: NCS)

Been through the AFS, furniture division bleeding hard this quarter

look furniture retail is brutal right now with load-shedding killing foot traffic and credit getting tighter but ncs owns corporate guarantee which is the real asset here, the insurance book has legs if they can just stop burning cash on the retail side, ja the price is beaten down but that's exactly when the patient money moves in, pre-revenue turnarounds happen all the time.

R5.50 BY YEAR END EASY!!

Pulled the latest results, furniture side still taking strain tbh

Picked up a parcel of NCS at R2.99 after that 6.5% hammering today, reckoning the fintech narrative hasn't changed despite the price action and the dividend yield is looking decent now.

@jim_jse4 what's the insurance book actually generating in earnings though, have you dug into that

@jim_jse4 ya the furniture side is just brutal hey. insurance aint carrying it

@jim_jse4 furniture drag is real, insurance too small

furniture retail in sa is getting hammered and nictus balance sheet isnt exactly flush. cash position dropped last year and theyre still carrying heavy debt from the acquisition spree. at r2.99 youre pricing in a lot of things going right that arent happening yet, consumer spending isnt there.

Furniture retail dead but insurance play brewing

DOIN MY HOMEWORK ON NCS, FURNITURE RETAIL BEAT DOWN TOO HARD HERE!!

fwiw the furniture side has been bleeding but insurance underwriting margin tightened last year too, so jim's right that it's not really carrying the weight. what interests me is the cash position relative to debt, they've been burning through working capital but the balance sheet isn't completely shot yet. if they can actually stabilize retail or at least stop the cash burn, there's an argument the shares aren't pricing in anything positive. could be wrong but R2.99 feels like capitulation pricing to me, not value.

furniture retail getting hammered, insurance side doesn't move the needle enough to matter. R2.99 is where people who bought at R8 come to cry. hard to see the catalyst here unless they pivot the whole thing.

NCS popping 7% on the trading statement release, which is interesting given the financials sector's been under pressure lately. If they've managed decent earnings growth through this cycle, the valuation at R3 could offer some upside potential, but I'd want to dig into the actual

yep that insurance play is the real difference, most furniture retailers are just getting crushed by rates but NCS has Corporate Guarantee throwing off cash that softens the blow. retail segment will bounce when rates finally come down, dividend yield at R3 looks solid if they don't cut it. seems to mirror what happened with Steinhoff when they split out the good assets, long-term view hasn't changed.

@jse_tttrading exactly, insurance is the safety net here

@jse_tttrading exactly, the insurance leg changes everything. furniture alone would be toast right now lol

ncs holding like springboks in the trenches, insurance is the pack

NCS at R3.00 looks interesting given the furniture retail recovery and Corporate Guarantee underwriting spread nicely. Risk reward is very compelling, patience looks like a real good idea while we see if earnings inflect this year.

furniture retail in sa is rough, load-shedding killing foot traffic and credit demand is weak. ncs at r3.00 now needs to show insurance side can actually carry weight. if corpo guarantee starts moving numbers then maybe there's something here, otherwise just another retailer waiting to get squeezed.