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@jim_jse4 what's the insurance book actually generating in earnings though, have you dug into that
@jim_jse4 ya the furniture side is just brutal hey. insurance aint carrying it
furniture retail in sa is getting hammered and nictus balance sheet isnt exactly flush. cash position dropped last year and theyre still carrying heavy debt from the acquisition spree. at r2.99 youre pricing in a lot of things going right that arent happening yet, consumer spending isnt there.
@jim_jse4 furniture drag is real, insurance too small
DOIN MY HOMEWORK ON NCS, FURNITURE RETAIL BEAT DOWN TOO HARD HERE!!
fwiw the furniture side has been bleeding but insurance underwriting margin tightened last year too, so jim's right that it's not really carrying the weight. what interests me is the cash position relative to debt, they've been burning through working capital but the balance sheet isn't completely shot yet. if they can actually stabilize retail or at least stop the cash burn, there's an argument the shares aren't pricing in anything positive. could be wrong but R2.99 feels like capitulation pricing to me, not value.
furniture retail getting hammered, insurance side doesn't move the needle enough to matter. R2.99 is where people who bought at R8 come to cry. hard to see the catalyst here unless they pivot the whole thing.
NCS popping 7% on the trading statement release, which is interesting given the financials sector's been under pressure lately. If they've managed decent earnings growth through this cycle, the valuation at R3 could offer some upside potential, but I'd want to dig into the actual
yep that insurance play is the real difference, most furniture retailers are just getting crushed by rates but NCS has Corporate Guarantee throwing off cash that softens the blow. retail segment will bounce when rates finally come down, dividend yield at R3 looks solid if they don't cut it. seems to mirror what happened with Steinhoff when they split out the good assets, long-term view hasn't changed.
ncs holding like springboks in the trenches, insurance is the pack
NCS at R3.00 looks interesting given the furniture retail recovery and Corporate Guarantee underwriting spread nicely. Risk reward is very compelling, patience looks like a real good idea while we see if earnings inflect this year.
@jse_tttrading exactly, insurance is the safety net here
furniture retail in sa is rough, load-shedding killing foot traffic and credit demand is weak. ncs at r3.00 now needs to show insurance side can actually carry weight. if corpo guarantee starts moving numbers then maybe there's something here, otherwise just another retailer waiting to get squeezed.
@jse_tttrading exactly, the insurance leg changes everything. furniture alone would be toast right now lol
Furniture retail is getting hammered by interest rates and load-shedding eating into disposable income, so how is NCS meant to grow revenue meaningfully from here. Insurance side looks decent but that's not enough to move the needle at R3.00 imo.
furniture retail in SA is brutal right now with rates still high and consumers tapped out, but NCS has that insurance segment propping things up which most of the furniture guys don't have. long-term view hasn't changed, the yield at R3.00 is decent if they keep the dividend and insurance keeps firing. markets are shaky but this isn't a liquidation story like some of the pure retail plays.
NCS up 12% today is getting ahead of itself, the financials sector rally is masking some weak fundamentals underneath. I'd rather wait for a pullback to R2.50 or below before reconsidering the thesis.