SAP jumping 5.34% today on what looks like a relief bounce, but the pulp and paper cycle is still dodgy globally. Is this a proper reversal or just short covering before we test lower?
Sappi (JSE: SAP) share price, discussion & sentiment
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SAP getting hammered down 6.81% to R9.31, probably caught up in the broader paper and packaging selloff but at these levels the dividend yield is starting to look interesting if they can stabilize.
nah sap's been struggling hey, closing at R9.31 is rough. dissolving pulp prices are still depressed globally and the rand weakness isn't helping exports like it used to. reckon they need a real turnaround in demand before i even look at this again, not just hoping rand recovers
Interesting numbers on dissolving pulp spreads lately, fwiw. If you look at the pricing through H1 vs what's been reported for other global producers, SAP's realisation has held up better than you'd expect given the rand weakness. Long-term the textile demand story is still there but near term margin compression is real, especially if euro weakens further against the dollar. Not convinced the current price factors in a proper recovery cycle.
sap's sitting at R9.31 and the dissolving pulp side is solid, but printing papers are getting squeezed hard by the shift to digital. if they can keep costs down and ride out the rand weakness, the dividend might hold up. long game though, not a quick flip.
pulp prices have been under pressure for months now, and sappi's margins are getting squeezed. at R9.31 the stock isnt pricing in much recovery, but dissolving pulp demand from textiles is still there long term. worth keeping an eye on the next quarterly to see if costs come down at all.
Sappi's down 4.46% today but the longer-term picture hinges on pulp pricing and whether management can improve operational efficiency across its mills. At current levels the dividend yield is becoming interesting again, though you need to monitor earnings revisions closely becaus
Dissolving pulp margins still holding up better than I expected given the rand weakness, but printing and writing is getting hammered. Imo the pack is where the real upside sits longer term if they can get costs down, otherwise you're just riding the pulp cycle at R11.59.
Sappi's dissolving pulp margins are still holding up better than the paper guys but the rand strength is eating into export revenue, that's the real headwind. At R11.59 you're basically getting the pulp cash generation with the printing paper drag thrown in for free, which feels mispriced if they can actually exit that segment like they keep saying they will.
SAP closed at R11.59 but the pulp side is actually doing decent work globally, just the rand killing everything. If they can keep dissolving pulp volumes up and stop hemorrhaging on the printing side, there's a real story here but eish, currency headwinds are brutal.
sappi's been getting hammered on rand weakness and pulp oversupply, sitting at R11.59 is basically where it was two years ago. dissolving pulp margins compressed but if you're in for the long game the dividend yield at these levels is actually decent, beats what you'd get sitting in a money market. just depends if you think they can hold operational costs when power keeps tanking.
SAP getting smashed 2.73% today, down to R11.04. Anyone else thinking this is overdone given the rand weakness should actually help their export margins, or is there something on the news I'm missing?
Do you think the rand strength is actually helping dissolving pulp margins or is it masking weak volume numbers. At R12.20 feels like everyone's waiting for the next earnings call to see if pricing held up.
Sappi's dissolving pulp margins are solid right now, textiles demand isn't going away anytime soon. At R12.20 this is decent value compared to where it was trading two years back, especially with the rand weak and export payback strong. Good day to top up if you reckon pulp stays firm through next year.
SAP getting interesting at R12.20, dissolving pulp prices actually holding better than expected this cycle. If they can keep costs down while competitors sweat it out, could be a real earner over the next couple years. GLTA
dissolving pulp margins are still garbage but the packaging side caught a bid when they fixed those mill issues. if they can actually keep chintezan running without another shutdown the rand weakness alone carries them higher from here. r12.20 looks cheap on a two year view.
SAP down less than 1% on what feels like knee-jerk selling, but the pulp pricing cycle is starting to turn and their balance sheet can handle the commodity volatility better than the market thinks. If you're not looking at their dividend yield relative to the debt paydown progres
sap closing at r13.19 is almost a gift at this price, dissolving pulp demand still solid globally and rand weakness actually helps their exports. balance sheet cleaned up nicely last few years, beats most of the other paper guys on leverage. if you're not holding some for the long game you're sleeping on it honestly.
SAP getting hammered on dissolving pulp pricing but long term this thing has legs if they can ride out the cycle. R13.19 is looking decent value if you believe in the specialty papers pivot and asia demand recovery. beats sitting in rand at current rates, serious now.
Sappi sitting at R13.19 with dissolving pulp demand picking up again from China. H1 earnings showed decent margin recovery, cash generation looking solid for debt reduction. Packaging segment holding its own despite the noise. Risk/reward is very compelling at these levels, patience looks like a real good idea.
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