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Sasol's debt levels are still chunky but the cash generation off synfuels when brent stays above 80 is legit. Chemical margins compressed though, that's the real headwind. Risk reward is very compelling at these levels if you believe energy stays sticky, patience looks like a real good idea here.
honestly the chemical side is whats keeping me interested here. crude prices all over the place but their downstream stuff has more margin stability than people give it credit for. closing at R70.03 is painful but sasol's been through worse cycles, petrochemical demand isnt going away lol
Sasol's stuck between a rock and a hard place hey. Rand weakness helps the export side but capex on those new projects is still bleeding cash, balance sheet's not exactly looking lekker compared to where it was five years ago. At R70.03 you're pricing in some recovery but the chemical side needs oil to stay strong or this thing just treads water.
closed at R70.03 yesterday, been fighting that R72 zone for weeks now. sasol's debt pile is still chunky even with oil prices up, chemical side keeps getting squeezed. if they can't crack through on the next leg up might see some real selling back to support
Sasol's been copping it on the energy transition story, but the synfuels business still throws decent cash when oil holds up. Problem is the capital intensity, you're waiting years for payback on those mega projects. Compare that to Anglo or Glencore and they're way more flexible with their capex, that's why the market keeps rating them higher. R79 might be value if you think oil stays north of 80 bucks for the next cycle, but it's a patient game.
Look, Sasol's sitting at R79 and everyone's crying about the energy transition. But they're pivoting hard into chemicals and green hydrogen, not just clinging to oil like the doomsayers want to believe. The fundamentals aren't collapsing, the market's just impatient with the turnaround story.
Reading the latest SENS on capex guidance, worth a deeper dig on this one
Bought some Sasol at R7600 this morning cos energy stocks have been looking better lately, fingers crossed it keeps climbing.
That 0.67% pop on Sasol's BEE instrument today feels like market relief on the dividend trajectory front, though until we see the next SENS announcement clarifying debt reduction pace and syngas utilization rates at Secunda, I'm not convinced the structural headwinds in the energ