@sceptic_pieter
Show me the numbers, not the story.
Search revenue keeps growing but margins on the ad side are actually compressing, which nobody talks about. YouTube's still firing but the growth rate is slowing. At 356.65 you're paying a decent multiple for single-digit growth in the core business, ag man. Cloud's the only thing that looks interesting but it's still tiny relative to ads.
Platinum prices have been under pressure, and IMP's all-in sustaining costs sit around 1000 USD per ounce. At current spot that's not much margin for error, especially with rand weakness eating into it. The dividend looked decent when PGMs were stronger but let's be honest here, the story only works if you believe prices recover meaningfully from here.
Algos dumping before close, same pattern every week.
ag man, the story sounds good but let's see what happens with those all-in sustaining costs. last I checked they were pushing 1200 per ounce, hard to get excited about gold at these levels if you're burning that much cash. Anglogold managing better margins, so there's room for improvement here if they sort out Ghana and the local ops.
The Ghana turnaround is still the key story here. Production ramping up, but you need to see those all-in costs actually drop below 1100 to justify the current price. At 557 you're paying for a lot of promise, margins say the execution risk is still real.
R19.20, bit of green on the board today.
Come on, push through 690!
@sceptic_pieter yield only matters if the payout stays stable, ja? What happens if iron ore drops further.
@sceptic_pieter what's the dividend yield looking like at these levels though?
11.48 and holding. Where's the volume though.
algos having a field day, 687 cracking like nothing. who's selling into this.
623.97 now, bit of a wobble today
690.00 and bleeding. Tough day.
ad spend is still holding up better than the doomers predicted, but let's be honest here, margins on search are flatlining while capex keeps climbing for these AI data centres. at 356 you're not getting them cheap relative to where ad growth actually is, even if the long term cloud story pans out.
Search revenue looking solid but let's be honest here, the real money is ads and YouTube's growth is flattening. Cloud is still a rounding error compared to Meta's margins on the same business. At 356 you're paying for the past, not the future.
Look, cloud is growing but let's be honest here, margins on that segment are getting squeezed. Alibaba's e-commerce cash cow still works but the domestic competition keeps getting meaner. At 122.25 you're not paying a crazy multiple, but I'd want to see margin expansion before getting excited again, not just revenue numbers.
ANH at R1429.22 trades at about 22x earnings which is premium to peers like Diageo, but the dividend yield sits around 2.8% so you're paying for consistency rather than value. The real question is whether the revenue headwinds in Africa justify holding this versus domestic plays
Margins are holding up well even with the cyclical headwinds, which is the thing people miss when they panic on guidance. Applied Materials trades on similar multiples but KLA's got tighter operating leverage, so if chip capex bounces back you'll see it flow through faster. The story works if you believe foundry utilization recovers in the next couple quarters, but the valuation at 182 already prices in most of that upside, ja.
come on eth, show us what you've got
ag man, gold price up but GFI lagging AngloGold on margins tells you something. The capex spend into next year is real and the rand strength we're getting now doesn't fix the production cost problem at these mines. Unless they show better unit economics out of Ghana, hard to get excited at 537.80.