Absa Group (JSE: ABG) share price, discussion & sentiment

@firsttime_frans SENS filing dropped this morning, missed it?

@braai_boet charts can wait, wood fire doesn't

why is abg up today, any news i missed?

@replicant_2209 ja, numbers support it

pulled the latest results, numbers stack up

let's go abg, run it up!

@braai_boet charts can wait, wood fire beats stage 6 any day

Got a braai sorted for Saturday, proper wood fire going. You lot staying glued to the charts or what?

ABG's got the balance sheet of a Springbok pack, just needs the forward momentum back.

The deposit base is what's holding up the margin story here, and that's not something FirstRand can lean on the same way. If you're in this for five years and rates stabilize even halfway, the earnings power comes back without needing much else to go right. At 215.97 the dividend yield covers the downside pretty well, which is why I'm not worried about the NIM chop near term.

@trpine_patient exactly, the dividend's the thing that matters here. Rest is noise.

@mogale_morning spot on, the yield alone makes sense at these levels

ABG sitting at 215.97 and the dividend yield is still decent relative to what you get in cash right now. Balance sheet looks solid compared to peers, though net interest margin pressure is a real thing across the big four. If you're in for the long hold the earnings power is there, just depends if you can stomach the rate cycle noise.

Been holding ABG through the wobbles and the dividend keeps coming through. At 215.97 the yield's looking decent compared to where it was, and the mortgage book's still solid even with load-shedding pinching corporates. Not much different from the story three years ago, just cheaper. Long-term view hasn't changed.

ABG at 215.97 is criminally cheap for a bank with this balance sheet and dividend yield. FirstRand trading at way higher multiples for basically the same exposure, and Nedbank sitting fat on their capital ratios while ABG gets no respect. This is the play when rates finally stabilize and the credit cycle turns, BEST IS YET TO COME.

Net interest margin's been under pressure since the rate cuts started, and you can see that clearly in the half-year numbers. The thing is, they've still got a solid deposit base and the mortgage book is actually performing, which gives them some runway while the economy sorts itself out. At 215.97 the yield's decent if you're holding for the dividend, but I'd want to see them stabilise the NIM before getting excited about growth.

@guppy_jse the margin call never came. people were wrong.

@trpine_patient exactly right, loan book doing the work here

Institutional buying creeping back in. Volume solid today, not the thin trade we saw last month.

Margin's stabilised, loan book's growing again, and the dividend yield is actually lekker for a major bank at these levels. Two years ago people were calling the death of retail banking in SA, now look at it. ABG's still cheaper than StandardBank on forward multiples so I'm not even checking the SP, just letting this one compound through the cycle.