African Rainbow Min (JSE: ARI) share price, discussion & sentiment

Come on ARI, show us what you've got!

Stop loss raid in effect. Classic move on ARI.

@thuli_dd what's the view on the iron ore outlook though, that's been solid?

166.17 and down nearly 2%. Eish.

Big wall at 166 appeared same time as the selling. Convenient.

Wall at 166 didnt take long to crumble. Someone knew something.

ALGOS RAIDING STOPS AGAIN, CLASSIC MOVE BEFORE THE RAMP!!

166.17 now. Holding there imo.

@newbie_naledi you're reading it straight. load-shedding plus weak spot prices is a squeeze play, dividend math doesn't work if both stay down.

@sceptic_pieter what's the dividend yield actually looking like now though?

@sceptic_pieter have you looked at the latest cash position versus capex guidance though? seems like there's more runway than that implies.

Platinum exposure looking cheaper than peers right now.

Look, the platinum upside is there but you need to see cash generation improve before the dividend feels safe. Load-shedding's a real drag on costs and until we see either a commodity bounce or material cost cuts, this sits in the waiting room. Give it a quarter or two to show improvement on the margin side.

sorry if this is obvious, still learning, but has anyone looked at where ARI's platinum realizations are headed? with load-shedding grinding on and capex still eating cash, feels like the dividend might be under pressure if commodity prices don't recover soon. am i reading the fundamentals wrong or is this more of a wait-and-see on energy costs improving?

ARI sitting at 169.34 and I still don't see the story. Platinum's been weak, iron ore's not doing them favours either, and management keeps talking about operational improvements without delivering much on the bottom line. Compare that to some of the other diversified miners and you're not getting paid for the risk here, ja no.

ag man, let's be honest here. ARI's got decent PGM exposure and the dividend was solid when spot prices held up, but margins have been getting squeezed on the iron ore side and all it takes is one bad quarter in palladium to reset expectations. At 169.34 you're paying for a recovery story, not the fundamentals we're seeing now.

what's the difference between pgm and iron ore, are they both mined at the same place

@replicant_2209 exactly right, cash generation's the key here. patience looks like a real good idea.

@swordfish_sa yep, the capex discipline is the thing. if they blow it chasing volume they're toast.

Reckon 185 by end of quarter, GLTA