Glencore (JSE: GLN) share price, discussion & sentiment

Come on GLN, push through!

118.35 now, copper's not helping

@easy_money_sa bit ambitious but I like the energy haha

@nico_the_analyst copper's down across the board though, not a GLN specific thing surely?

119.00 and bleeding. Copper having a mare today.

118.35 now, copper's dragging everything down today.

@nico_the_analyst ja, copper's taking strain today

@nico_the_analyst ja, soft is the word. Copper's dragging everything down today lol

Come on GLN, break through!

R119.00 now, bit soft today.

Come on GLN, R150 this week!

Algos hammering it down again. Classic Friday move.

Big wall at 125 but the cobalt upside if EV demand picks up again could justify pushing through. Dividend's real money at these levels and they're not overleveraged like some of the other diversifieds, so even if zinc rolls over they've got the copper and nickel to lean on.

Zinc's been pricing in recession for months but Glencore's diversification across copper and cobalt actually buffers that if we get a demand surprise. The dividend yield at these levels is lekker relative to peers, and they've got the balance sheet to hold it through a downturn. Worth watching whether they cut capex or hold firm in the next guidance update.

what does diversification actually mean in this context, sorry

@rawssy_links ja, cobalt's the real swing factor for them going forward

Pulled the latest SENS filing, cobalt exposure looks solid

GLN closed at R121.50, still sitting under R125 which is the real resistance. Zinc and copper are holding up better than people expected, and the cobalt exposure is starting to look decent if China doesn't tank harder. If they can keep the dividend and not get hammered by another commodity crash, this is actually not a bad long position from here.

The cobalt story is real, but let's not forget half their cash comes from zinc which is getting properly squeezed. 121.50 is decent value if you believe the dividend holds and copper doesn't crater, but that 125 level matters because it's where you start seeing proper upside momentum rather than just yield chasing. The diversification argument only works if none of the commodities completely collapse at once, which obviously can happen.

GLN sitting at 121.50 and honestly the dividend yield is looking decent compared to what you get elsewhere in resources. Zinc and copper exposure gives you a bit of diversification without being all-in on one commodity, which I like. If we can push past 125 there's room to run, and the cobalt side of things is only going to matter more as time goes on.