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KAL nudging higher at R47.81 today. With the consumer discretionary space under pressure, reckon this resilience speaks to decent demand for their products or are we just seeing light profit-taking ahead of earnings?
@mogale_morning what about the distribution bottlenecks in rural areas though?
@mogale_morning solid on paper maybe, but what's the actual inventory turnover like these days?
KAL's been solid on the agri side, farmers still need inputs no matter what. Got a chunk at R45.20 last week and not selling at these prices, good fundamentals underneath all the noise. Long term this thing prints if they keep the distribution network tight.
@mogale_morning yeah their distribution network is no joke, especially in the rural areas where competition is thin
kal's been solid on the farming side, especially with input prices steadying up. at r47.45 it feels like theres room to run if they keep the retail network tight and gross margins dont get squeezed. ngl the smallholder farmer segment is where the real growth could be, thats still under-penetrated in sa
supply chain is one thing but margins getting squeezed harder than a springbok in a scrum, fertiliser input costs are killing them relative to what they can actually sell at. still reckon there's a turnaround play if they can shift more volume through the retail network but man the rand weakness isn't helping
kal holding well above r47 support, farming inputs play looking solid
got filled on some at r45.20 last week, good day to top up if it dips further. smallholder demand is sticky even in tough times and that distribution network into the rural areas keeps them relevant. fertiliser cycle turning helps margins, not selling at these prices.
kal's smallholder distribution is their moat tbh, can't be replicated overnight. fertiliser demand stays sticky even when rand tanks which is the play here, beats pure fmcg exposure. at 46.80 the yield covers downside and if grain cycle holds they've got room. margins are the watch though, input cost inflation could squeeze them hard into next season.
kal's distribution network into smallholder farmers is where the real moat is, those guys can't switch suppliers easy. fertiliser cycle turning and rand weakness actually helps them on input costs, margins should hold better than the consumer goods crowd. at r46.80 with a divvy yield you're not catching a falling knife, been through the squeeze already.
@mogale_morning exactly right, that smallholder stickiness is the moat here
kal sitting at r46.80 and still got decent upside if fertiliser cycle keeps turning. farming inputs beat consumer goods in a drought year, reckon they'll move with the rand too. holding for the divvy and hoping grain prices stay strong for the smallholder base. glta
Good morning everyone, kal's been grinding through the ag retail squeeze but that distribution network into smallholder farmers is pretty sticky, especially with input demand staying solid even when times get tough. At R46.80 the yield's decent and if they can keep margin pressure in check through the season could be worth watching. worth reading their latest sens on inventory moves.
KAL taking a knock today at R44.52, but with that 6.8% yield and consistent volume, wondering if this is just noise or if there's something in their numbers we should be worried about. Anyone got recent earnings data on hand?
KAL holding steady at R44.94 after that recent run, but the real question is whether the valuation justifies another entry at these levels. Revenue growth needs to accelerate if we're paying up here, otherwise the yield becomes the only story.
KAL taking a knock at R4401 but the dividend yield's still respectable and consumer staples have legs in this environment, so I'm holding through the noise.