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MCZ at R2.97 is trading on fumes with coal exposure that's structurally challenged. Revenue's been declining and the balance sheet's stretched, so you're essentially betting on a thermal coal price spike to justify holding this one.
MCZ getting hammered down 9.82% to R2.94 today. Anyone else wondering if this is panic selling or if there's actual news we're missing on the coal side?
Coal demand staying strong globally and eskom still needs domestic supply, mcz's margins should be decent if they keep costs in check. Picked some up under R3 last month, long-term view hasn't changed. Anglogold and impala both had rough patches but bounced, mining stocks get beaten down on sentiment not fundamentals sometimes.
MCZ's slide to R3.05 reflects broader coal headwinds, but if you're patient the dividend yield becomes interesting once we stabilize around these levels, especially with thermal coal still relevant in SA's energy mix for another decade. The real question is whether management can
MCZ SITTING AT R3.16 AND PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING ON THIS!! COAL DEMAND NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH ESKOM NEEDING DOMESTIC SUPPLY AND EXPORT MARKETS STILL HUNGRY. LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED TO GLENCORE AND ANGLO WHEN THEY CAUGHT THESE MOVES. MASSIVE UPSIDE HERE IF THEY GET PRODUCTION COSTS DOWN, LFG!!
coal price recovery looking thin hey, eskom still battling and export demand meh. mcz sitting at r3.16 but fundamentals havent really shifted, still waiting to see if they can actually turn cash generation around. probably a turnaround story but timing is hectic.
Coal got smashed this week but mcz sitting at r3.16 is basically giving away the asset. eskom still needs power, exports are there, just sentiment killing it. long term play if you can stomach the volatility.
Spent last night on the AFS. Margins tighter than I thought but recoverable.
eish, swordfish onto it though. mcz's problem isn't the coal, it's the balance sheet taking strain. if eskom actually commits to buying domestic again margins could rip but at r3.49 you're betting on operational turnaround, not just commodity bounce. rand strength helps but load shedding is still destroying volumes, can't ignore that.
SWORDFISH IS RIGHT, WHEN ESKOM GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER MCZ IS GONNA RUN!! THERMAL DEMAND IS COMING BACK AND THE RAND IS STILL WEAK WHICH HELPS EXPORT MARGINS HEAPS, LOOK WHAT HAPPENED TO GLENCORE COAL WHEN CONDITIONS TURNED, THIS IS GONNA BE MASSIVE!! BEST IS YET TO COME!!
mcz at r3.49 is basically giving away thermal coal exposure while eskom keeps the lights off. if load-shedding gets worse coal demand actually goes up, not down. balance sheet is weak but the commodity trade is there if you can stomach the volatility.
Coal story's still got legs ngl, eish the rand weakness helps export margins and Eskom's still burning through inventory. At R3.49 good day to top up if you believe the cycle isn't finished, I put an order at R3.35 last week and got filled on weakness.
margins expand hard once eskom stabilises, mcz's cost base is solid compared to peers and rand weakness actually helps export pricing. at r3.49 you're not paying much for the recovery, risk reward is very compelling here if load shedding eases in the next 12 months.
Eskom keep bleeding so thermal coal story should hold up, but MCZ balance sheet still looks stretched compared to where it was two years back. Not selling tho, coal cycle turns eventually and we're positioned for when it does. Long-term view hasn't changed.
coal's got legs if eskom actually sorts itself but mcz at r3.49 is pricing in a lot of pain already, reckon the margins are there when thermal demand picks up again, just need the rand not to crater and load shedding to stop being a feature not a bug
MCZ bleeding a bit today at 3.40, but coal's still got legs with energy crisis headlines keeping the sector in play.
Current R 3,25 — 50% of range
Fundamentals sourced from JSE disclosures. Updated quarterly.