Mtn Group (JSE: MTN) share price, discussion & sentiment

Morning all, let's see what happens

sorry if this is obvious but i keep reading that mtn's debt is the real problem, not the revenue side. the dividend looks nice on paper at 204.97 but if they're spending everything on capex just to stay competitive with vodacom and keep the network decent, where's the cash actually coming from to pay down that balance sheet. am i missing something or is this just a yield trap situation.

@mumu_data debt's the real issue here, capex story weak

sorry if this is obvious, still learning, but I'm worried about the capex they need just to keep the network going while load-shedding makes everything harder. The dividend is nice but if debt stays this high and revenue gets squeezed, that yield might not look so decent in a year. Are they actually investing enough to compete or just trying to keep shareholders happy while treading water?

@mumu_data debt is the real problem tbh. revenue growth where though

350 BY END OF YEAR, EASILY!!

@mumu_data debt's the real problem here, not the dividend

@mumu_data ja, debt's the real problem here. Revenue growth feels stuck.

MTN sitting at R204.97 with that dividend yield looking decent, but the debt levels keep me from sleeping easy. What's your read on the capex cycle and whether they can actually grow revenue in this environment?

MTN sitting at R204.97 with a yield pushing 7% makes it interesting for income players, but the dividend's only as safe as their subscriber growth and debt reduction efforts. Revenue momentum in Nigeria and Ghana will need to justify holding through the currency headwinds.

@rawssy_links yep, the naira keeps hurting them hey

@rawssy_links ja, the Nigeria FX drag is real. Just wish they'd actually move the needle on those towers instead of talking about it.

@rawssy_links ja, tower play is massive and nobody's pricing it in yet

MTN's structural challenge remains the same: Nigerian currency headwinds and regulatory pressure eating into cash generation, yet at R204.97 the valuation isn't pricing in much upside from their tower monetisation or emerging market growth. Long-term, the dividend yield is only l

PEOPLE SLEEPING ON THE TOWER PLAY HERE!! MTN's got massive fibre and tower assets that haven't been properly monetised yet, look what happened to Vodacom when they spun tower value, this thing could do the same. Nigeria's a headwind today but those subs aren't going anywhere, the cash generation story gets way better once they unlock that infrastructure. At 204.97 we're getting paid a solid yield while waiting for the real move. BEST IS YET TO COME!!

Not sure about this, but if SA revenue stays flat and Nigeria keeps bleeding, what's the 204.97 actually pricing in.

@k_maphosa capex return is the real question here

MATE YOU'RE ALL MISSING THE BIGGER PICTURE HERE. VODACOM SPENT YEARS DOING EXACTLY WHAT MTN'S DOING NOW WITH CAPEX AND MOBILE MONEY, LOOKED PAINFUL FOR TWO YEARS THEN BOOM THE RETURNS SHOWED UP. MTN'S GOT MORE AFRICAN SCALE THAN VOD EVER WILL AND THE RAND WEAKNESS IS ACTUALLY TAILWIND FOR RAND-DENOMINATED EARNINGS WHEN THEY REPORT FROM NIGERIA AND GHANA. GIVE IT TIME, THIS STOCK RIPS WHEN THE MARKET REALIZES THEY'RE BUILDING SOMETHING MASSIVE ACROSS

Do you think the rand weakness is actually helping MTN's numbers when they report, or is the operational pain in Nigeria and Ghana outweighing that. Revenue's been flat for ages now, which is eish when the whole thesis is growth across Africa.

MTN holding above 200 is decent but the dividend yield is what's keeping bag holders interested. Compare that to Vodacom and you see why the market's been cool on them. African expansion is the real story if they can actually execute on it, but cash flow's been squeezed. Load-shedding hitting data usage should help though.