JSE TOP40 index: April review & forecast

The JSE Top 40 index continues to show an impressive long-term uptrend, despite the recent pullback that some traders have mistaken for a trend reversal. Long-term investors have little reason to worry: over the past 12 months, the index has gained 31.71%, with a peak return of 43.17% reached in February 2026.

This performance has been supported by robust demand for South African resource stocks — particularly precious metals producers. Gold has been setting record highs throughout 2026, recently trading above $4,700 per ounce, while platinum group metals have also rallied on tight supply and strong industrial demand.

A flat year-to-date despite global headwinds.

Through the first four months of 2026, the JSE Top 40 has remained virtually flat (+0.78% YTD), an impressive result given the geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East. The first quarter was undoubtedly volatile for global markets, but JSE investors weathered the drawdown more comfortably than most emerging-market peers. Crucially, the psychological 100,000-point support level held firm, with the index bottoming near 98,000 before rebounding.

"JSE Top 40 daily chart April 2026 showing rising channel and 19% correction from February peak"

What's the forecast?

The technical structure remains constructive: the index is still trading inside the rising channel that has guided price action since early 2025, and the sequence of higher lows is intact. Provided that 100,000–104,000 holds as support, the path of least resistance points toward a retest of 112,000 and, eventually, the 121,000 highs.
That said, geopolitical risks remain elevated. A renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz or sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel would force the SARB to keep rates higher for longer, weighing on equities. Under such a scenario, the index could revisit the lower boundary of its uptrend channel.

For patient investors, however, a retreat from the all-time high may represent an attractive entry point into one of the better-performing emerging markets of the past 12 months. So the deals to buy still relevant.

Stay informed

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