JSE Down 2.18% - Volatility Wins, Your Portfolio Loses

The scoreboard

Monday brought the kind of selling that makes you wonder whether investors woke up on the wrong side of the bed or just remembered that inflation is still real. The Top 40 closed down 2.18 percent. broad-based weakness across the board, with hardly any sector left standing. If you bought the dip on Friday, congratulations. You bought it again today, except lower.

Winners of the day

Losers of the day

Why it happened

Tiger Brands managed to hike its dividend while operating profit jumped 26 percent, which is the kind of news that usually keeps a stock afloat. It didn't today. The broader market appears to be ignoring the good stories and hunting down the weak ones. Pick n Pay's travails are on the agenda, and an insurer is shaping up for a scrap with Discovery, but individual bright spots are getting drowned out by macro anxiety.

Mahube and the mining cohort bore the brunt today. Infrastructure stocks in particular are out of favor. Whether it is jitters about load shedding costs, tender delays, or just market mood swings, something spooked the punters. When the Top 40 drops 2.18 percent in a single day, the big winners get the headlines but the real story is that diversification across 40 stocks didn't help much. Some days the market doesn't care what you own.

What to watch tomorrow

• Whether the selling sustains or we get a bounce. Two down days in a row gets people nervous.
• Rand weakness. A 2 percent down day often travels with currency jitters. Check the dollar's mood.
• Earnings season momentum. Tiger Brands delivered. Who else is ready to prove the market wrong.
• Global sentiment. US Fed speak and bond yields matter more than they should.