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Hello StockTalkers,
RMI delivered the kind of week equity markets dream about. The Rand Merchant Investments holding smashed through the 210% barrier on a five-day sprint, dragging the JSE Top 40 along for a decidedly choppy ride. Pick N Pay rallied hard on revival hopes; Salungano popped 50% on news that apparently nobody was expecting; and even the losers looked ugly enough that someone somewhere was buying the dip. The JSE All Share tried to keep up, but a mixed bag of earnings pre-announcements and sector rotation kept conviction thin. When RMI is your headline story, you know the week belonged to the believers. The rand, meanwhile, did what it does best in a crisis: found new lows. A global oil shock rippled through commodities, inflation expectations ticked higher, and the Reserve Bank's rate-hiking cycle looked set to accelerate. Morgan Stanley remained bullish on South Africa's reform trajectory in the medium term, a kind gesture that the market largely ignored while fretting about the next two weeks of potential hikes. The macro backdrop remains a study in contrasts. Stefanutti Stocks picked up an R580 million Eskom settlement and is guiding earnings growth of 210% for 2026. Mining looks like it might actually be stirring again after decades on life support. But every bounce in commodity prices gets dampened by currency weakness and rate-rise anxiety. For retail investors, this week was a masterclass in volatility and the perils of timing. RMI's trajectory, while thrilling, was almost certainly not a validation of skill. Africa Bitcoin tanked 48.72%, Oando fell 37.5%, and the Foschini Group lost 16% in five days. The message is clear: conviction trades need conviction, not hope. If you're eyeing miners on the comeback story or construction plays on the Eskom tailwind, do your homework first. The JSE rewards the patient and punishes the rushed. Most active was ABG (Absa), ACL (ArcelorMittal), and 4SI (4Sight), which suggests some institutional rebalancing is happening. Pay attention to what the smart money is actually buying, not what the fastest movers are telling you.
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