julianreins

zed's been range bound for ages but the agri exposure is actually interesting when you look at the rand weakness angle. checked the latest sens and they're holding decent stakes in some solid operations, could work if food inflation keeps running. just not convinced management's squeezed all the value out yet.

furniture retail in sa is getting hammered and nictus balance sheet isnt exactly flush. cash position dropped last year and theyre still carrying heavy debt from the acquisition spree. at r2.99 youre pricing in a lot of things going right that arent happening yet, consumer spending isnt there.

rand's been getting hammered against the dollar since fed kept rates higher for longer, we're looking at what, 18.50 levels now. problem is sa's got no real fix for the current account deficit, so every time there's global risk off the dollar just vacuums up rands. rand hedge stuff on the jse probably the only play that makes sense til things change structurally.

alsi got hammered on rand weakness again, every time the currency takes a hit our big exporters drag the whole index down. thing is the earnings yields arent terrible if you strip out the fx noise, but nobody wants to hear that when the rand's in freefall. been here before though, this is cyclical, not structural damage.

inventory turn improvement is legit, but the margin compression from weak rand is eating into what could be a clean story. read the md&a on merchandise mix, sportscene's doing the heavy lifting while exact's still sluggish. if they can stabilize rand-sensitive input costs through the next few quarters without killing volumes, the multiple here looks defensible against where they could be.

the regional portfolio mix is what saves them when joburg gets hammered. half the assets are outside the metros, that's not sexy but it's why the yield holds. md&a showed footfall stabilizing in the smaller centres, that matters more than the mall traffic noise.

Vacancy rates coming down on the new tenants, that's the real story here

Reading through the latest SENS on embedded value, the margin improvement in the savings business is actually what's holding this together. Peaked at R40.82 today but the real story is whether they can keep growing AUM without the rand falling apart again. Life insurance plays usually get hammered in a recession so you're basically betting Momentum keeps clients locked in. Fair value if earnings stay steady but not much upside if the economy actually tanks.

Algos hammering it down before close, classic move.

MRP holding R175.91 today but what's actually interesting is the inventory turn on the latest set, they've tightened working capital properly. Most retailers are still bloated from the pandemic, Mr Price is actually moving stock, ngl that's the game right now with load-shedding killing foot traffic.

after reading the second document, the solvency ratios look solid but equity release keeps dragging on earnings. at R13.55 thats pricing in maybe 2% growth which is rough when you look at the wealth management division actually gaining traction. problem is everyone just sees the insurance side struggling with claims and bails.

@thuli_dd what's the payout ratio looking like in the latest results though

Read the latest results. Industrial actually tracking ok, retail the real drag still.

R253.53, testing that R250 support properly

Someone's been selling into every bounce since open, eish.

@easy_money_sa what's driving the R250 call though, coal prices cooling off a bit lately

BVT's up 2.3% today but let's be real, that's just noise if the fundamentals haven't changed. The dividend yield is still the main draw here, so unless something material shifted I'm holding steady.

@replicant_2209 prosus discount is the real problem here, not the ops

someone's painting the tape at the bid again, classic move

Let's go DCP, run it up!