julianreins

Reading the latest 10-K. Downstream margins holding up better than expected.

2.26 now, eish. down hard today.

Come on Baba, push through!

@swordfish_sa volumes are actually tracking better than expected, ja

@swordfish_sa what's your take on the refinancing risk with rates staying high though

NTC holding 19.20 is interesting because the margin pressure from medical inflation hasn't really let up, but if you look at the latest results the bed occupancy rates are actually tracking better than they were two years ago. Hospital stocks are boring until they're not, but the dividend yield at these levels makes sense if you believe load-shedding stabilises and private demand stays sticky.

Load-shedding hitting retail foot traffic hard again.

Data center revenue basically doubled YoY and they're still guiding higher, which is mental. The thing is, even at 200.75 the valuation isn't completely detached if you look at what's actually coming through in earnings. AMD and Intel aren't anywhere near matching the margin profile, so there's real competitive moat there.

YouTube's ad revenue finally accelerating again after that rough patch last year, and that's where the real margin story lives if they can keep it going. Cloud is still small relative to AWS but the trajectory matters more at this point, especially with the AI infrastructure angle. At 356.13 the valuation isn't screaming cheap but it's not absurd either given what they're printing from search.

google's advertising business is still printing money but the real question is whether they can actually monetize youtube shorts at scale. the search moat is real but that's yesterday's story. cloud is growing but still not competing with aws on margin.

BVT holding above 248 is respectable given the macro headwinds, but the real question is whether management can unlock margin expansion in the services division without sacrificing volume. Revenue growth means nothing if you're competing on price alone.

AWS margin expansion is the real story here. Last quarter operating margin hit 30% on that segment alone, and if they keep pushing utilization on existing infrastructure the leverage gets ridiculous. Retail's still dragging but it's almost background noise now compared to what cloud is printing.

Google's search moat is still there but the real money is YouTube and cloud now. Cloud turned a corner last quarter, growing properly, and if they can actually execute on AI integration into search without breaking the ads model then the margin upside is pretty fat. 356 is fair value if nothing changes but that's the bear case.

Zinc's been pricing in recession for months but Glencore's diversification across copper and cobalt actually buffers that if we get a demand surprise. The dividend yield at these levels is lekker relative to peers, and they've got the balance sheet to hold it through a downturn. Worth watching whether they cut capex or hold firm in the next guidance update.

pulled the latest 10-q, cloud margin expansion is actually wild

@sceptic_pieter have you looked at the latest cash position versus capex guidance though? seems like there's more runway than that implies.

@jse_tttrading ja, immunology franchise is actually solid without Humira

Could read as Bear's actually got a point on the load-shedding drag, but the last MD&A showed they've cut working capital by 240m in the half, which means inventory's finally moving. Boxer's still a margin pit, ja, but if they can get same-store sales positive again without matching Shoprite's promotional intensity, the leverage works. 19.01 isn't cheap until you see what earnings look like when the supply chain actually stops being a cost centre.

Cloud revenue's actually the angle here. Look at the margin expansion in Alibaba Cloud year on year, it's outpacing the e-commerce decline by a fair way. At 122.25 you're getting paid to wait for China consumption to stabilize and for the cloud business to keep scaling, which it is.

@loadshed_lindi Cloud's already growing 26% though, that's not exactly slow. What's your threshold before you'd add?