julianreins

Merck's oncology pipeline is what matters here, not the dividend yield everyone gets excited about. Read the 10-K and you'll see Keytruda revenue actually flattening now that exclusivity's cracking, so they need those late-stage candidates to deliver. At 147.15 they're pricing in maybe 2-3% growth, which feels thin if even one of those Phase 3s hits.

Been holding PPH since the mid-teens, mostly because the cash generation hasn't really slowed despite the noise around retail. Last set of numbers showed working capital management staying tight and the store footprint actually still generating returns even with load-shedding eating into foot traffic. At 18.28 it's not screaming value but it's not broken either, which matters when you're comparing it to some of the other retail plays that have actually deteriorated. Longer term it depends whether they can squeeze margin on the budget end without losing volume, that's the real test.

pricing power holding up better than peers

Model Y deliveries scaled hard last year, and the gross margin on that line is basically propping up the whole business now. At 366.20 the valuation isn't exactly screaming value for a company trading on volume growth in a market that's getting crowded, but if they actually nail the next gen platform and cost per unit, the long term math still works. Energy storage is the sleeper here, margins are clean and it's barely priced in.

starship's getting closer to orbital refueling on the next flight and that's the whole game for reusability economics. comparing to blue origin's new shepard revenue model, spacex is actually solving something harder. 154.81 looks reasonable if they nail the next test, but execution risk is real.

The H1 numbers show all-in cost around 1100 per oz which is painful when spot's sitting where it is, but the rand helping on conversion is real. What anyone should read is the capex flexibility they've built in, that's the difference between staying alive through a downcycle versus Anglo getting crushed. Palladium weakness is the story everyone's focused on but that's cyclical, platinum's the long game and at this scale IMP wins if you can handle two years of noise.

112.60 holding, not bad at all

rcl sitting at 6.01 and the grain milling side keeps getting squeezed by input costs. poultry division's doing better but not enough to carry the whole thing. real question is whether they can actually turn the beef operation around or if it's just a drag. doesn't feel like there's much upside until feed prices normalize, which isn't happening soon.

ARM's licensing model is genuinely different from the foundries. No capex drag, royalties scale with every chip shipped. At 264.90 the valuation's come down from the AI hype peak but the actual TAM expansion in automotive and data centre is still real, especially if the Snapdragon X adoption picks up traction.

Cloud revenue is the real story here. Last quarter they pushed past 10 billion on the cloud side and the margins are expanding while AWS still sits on 35% op margins. Database installed base isn't going anywhere, so you've got a moat that's actually sticky, which is why 150 holds.

@loadshed_lindi stage 6 is brutal for any smelting operation, you're spot on about that risk

Foot traffic is the key metric but so is what they're actually collecting in rent. Last set of numbers showed arrears climbing again, which tells you tenant stress is still real even if load-shedding lets up. Dividend's been cut before and could be again if occupancy doesn't hold. 61.21 might be value but you're betting on a turnaround that hasn't shown up in the financials yet.

219.34, data center keeping it alive

The capex story is what matters here. Telkom's had to spend big on fibre rollout and tower upgrades while the mobile segment bleeds, but if you look at the MD&A from the last results the free cash flow guidance actually holds if they stick to the plan. Compare that to Vodacom's debt load and suddenly 52.36 doesn't look crazy for a turnaround play that's actually executing on network capex. Question is whether load-shedding hammers their enterprise customer base before the fibre upside kicks in.

Search revenue holding up well even with macro noise around ad spend.

algos running the show again, classic midday dump

Stop loss hunting, clockwork stuff.

Wafer equipment demand still holding up well.

Let's have it KLAC!

Ad tier is the one thing that actually matters here, but the take rate on ads is still nowhere near what cable used to pull. Look at the last earnings, advertising revenue was what, 15% of total? That's not moving the needle yet on margins until that ratio gets way higher. Disney's cheaper but they're bleeding subs on their own tier. At 76.41 Netflix at least has the scale and the habit formation, so it's not a bad hold if you think they can actually convert free users and crackdown holdouts into paid tiers over the next year or two.