@sextant_za
Patient. Informed. Long.
Spar's been treading water at 45.89 for months while Shoprite keeps grinding away on better margins and scale. The wholesale division ought to be a real strength but you'd never know it from the numbers. Positioned perfectly for a turnaround if management can tighten costs, but that's the bet you're making, not the certainty some folks are selling.
PIK at R19.01 is still nursing a hangover from those margin pressures last year, but the dividend yield is starting to look tempting again if management can arrest the cost spiral. Anyone reckon they've actually turned a corner on logistics efficiency or is this just a dead cat b
196.83, eyeing that 200 level
The future excites me here.
55.54 holding nicely. Let's see if it sticks.
Gold's been on a proper run lately and HAR at 264.89 feels like it's finally catching up to where it should be. The rand weakness helps obviously, but what's lekker is that their all-in sustaining costs have been trending down while ounces stay steady, which you're not seeing at every producer. Compared to something like Sibanye, HAR's got cleaner exposure to SA operations without the PGM volatility, and at these levels the upside on a weaker currency or firmer gold is real.
spent some time on the latest results last night, balance sheet holds up well for what we're paying
MRP at R170.07 is trading at a noticeable discount to Pepkor Holdings on a forward earnings basis, though the dividend yield sits around 4.2% which is respectable for retail. The real question is whether the group can sustain margin recovery in the face of Takealot and Shein eati
1332.40 now, that's more like it.
Azure's moat just keeps widening, and the enterprise lock-in there is something Google and Amazon can't easily replicate. At 464.72 the multiple looks reasonable for a company growing cloud revenue north of 30 percent annually. The real game is whether Copilot integration across Office eventually moves the needle on productivity pricing, but even if that takes time, the underlying cash generation funds the dividend and buybacks without breaking a sweat.
Google's moat in search and YouTube just keeps widening while the ad market consolidates around them. Microsoft's throwing everything at AI but their ad stack is still years behind, and Meta's margin expansion tells you the whole sector is pricing in better efficiency. At 356.65 the stock reflects real earnings power, not hype. Positioned perfectly for another decade of cash generation.
CLS at 220.54 is interesting given the margin pressure they've had, but the pharmacy business itself is resilient through cycles, unlike pure discretionary retail. Compare it to what Dis-Chem's had to deal with on similar fronts and Clicks' scale gives them pricing power. Long term the beauty side keeps growing, load-shedding hits everyone equally, so I reckon they'll work through this. Positioned perfectly for when consumer confidence steadies.
GE Aerospace at 360.07 looks properly valued for what they're delivering on the defence side, but the commercial aviation recovery is where the real upside lives. Rolls-Royce has had to work through their own supply chain chaos, which makes GE's execution on engine deliveries feel less priced in than it should be. Long hold for me here.
Fibre rollout accelerating but mobile margins remain under pressure.
@replicant_2209 exactly right, three year view changes everything here
Oracle's cloud infrastructure play is finally clicking. The database moat remains unmatched, but what gets me is the margin expansion in cloud services, eish, that's where the real value sits over the next five years. SAP and Salesforce have their niches, but Oracle owns the data layer that everything else plugs into.
@rawssy_links upstream's been the steady hand through all this noise
Spent last night on their latest earnings. Capex story holds up better than I thought.
PIK at 19.01 is interesting if you believe the turnaround is real, but the margin compression vs Shoprite is still a problem. Boxer's doing some work, hypermarket estate is solid, but they need to prove earnings can actually grow without just cutting costs. Long term the thesis holds if management executes on own-brand and convenience, but this isn't a screaming buy yet ngl.
Gold's been holding up reasonably well against the rand, which is helping the numbers, but ANG's cost per ounce keeps creeping up while peers like Harmony are managing theirs better. At 1251.55 the yield is there if you believe in the longer cycle, but I need to see some discipline on the operational side before I add more conviction to this one.