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fibre footprint expanding but capex burn is real, mobile subs still bleeding to vodacom and rain. dividend yield masks the cash flow problem. if they can stabilize arpu in the next two quarters and actually show fibre take up numbers, risk reward gets interesting at these levels. patience looks like a real good idea.
fixed line death spiral is real but the fibre numbers they put out last quarter show some traction, problem is it's gonna take years to offset the legacy decline and meanwhile mobile's getting crushed by vodacom's pricing. dividend yield at these levels keeps income players hanging around but unless fibre subs actually accelerate in the next 2-3 quarters, management's gonna struggle to justify the capex burn. enterprise is the only part that doesn't look cooked but one division can't carry this weight for long.
@franco_cape spot on, the fixed line bleeding is real. mobile margin compression killing them while fibre eats cash.
@momentumtracker_jse but isn't the fibre actually generating decent margins now? where's the cash burn you're seeing
The fixed-line bleed is real but fibre capex is the play that actually matters here, same bet Vodacom made years back and it's paying off for them now. Mobile margin compression stings short term ja, but if enterprise actually stabilizes and they stop losing copper customers to load-shedding chaos, the cash flow picture changes. R60 range doesn't scare me for a five year hold, positioned perfectly for when infrastructure finally stops being a drag and starts being an asset.
Fixed-line revenue is honestly the problem nobody wants to fix, they just keep throwing capex at fibre hoping mobile saves them lol. Vodacom's eating them alive on that front and the dividend's only worth it if cash flow actually stabilises, which it hasn't. If they can get enterprise customers to stick around while the fibre builds out then maybe there's a play here, but R60 range feels right til we see it actually happen.
fibre capex is necessary but it's bleeding them dry in the near term, mobile margins getting crushed by vodacom. need to see them actually win back enterprise contracts and stabilize consumer fixed before this moves. dividend's decent at these levels but won't get excited till management shows they can grow subs again, not just cut costs.
@momentumtracker_jse nailed it, dividend trap without growth
Eish, TKG sitting at R60.59 but the fixed-line revenue keeps sliding and mobile ain't picking up the slack fast enough. Enterprise might save them but ngl the load-shedding mess is killing capex spend across the board, feels like they're swimming against the current ja.
Worth noting the margin compression in mobile is real, but if they actually pull off the fibre rollout and get enterprise subs growing again, the long term yield play still works imo. Problem is they need to stop the bleeding in consumer fixed first and I'm not sure management has convinced anyone that's happening yet. Could be wrong but the R60 range feels like fair value till we see actual turnaround numbers.
TKG's stuck between fiber rollout capex and mobile competition from Vodacom, ngl. At R60.59 the dividend yield is decent but cash generation's under pressure with all the infrastructure spend. Reckon it's a hold for income players but growth story's thin unless they actually win back market share in mobile.
The fibre build is real but cape_steel's right, we're still mostly a copper company collecting revenue while the network bleeds out. Mobile tower lease income and that rand tailwind on the dollar debt are keeping things afloat but they're not the story yet, just breathing room. If they actually execute on network hardening and the fibre subscriber base starts moving, this looks positioned perfectly against Vodacom's infrastructure headaches. At R60.07 you're not paying for the turnaround, just the optionality of it.
copper theft and load-shedding are real headwinds but the fibre capex is finally starting to show in the numbers and mobile tower revenue is actually solid. people sleeping on the fact that rand weakness actually helps service the dollar debt. if they can just stabilize the network reliability this whole thing flips in 2-3 years, R60 is a gift for patient money.
R60.07 holding. fibre dreams incoming lfg
LFG FIBRE ROLLOUT MASSIVE!!!
fibre capex ramping but copper still most of the revenue base. how long before that flips
r60.07, good day to top up